Is the Congress eyeing 2024 instead of the 2019 contest? Has it simply decided to sit out this fight? Not literally, of course; but in terms of opting for a long-haul makeover strategy instead of a quick-fix survival tactic?
Have Rahul Gandhi and his sister, Priyanka, calculated that the chances of Narendra Modi’s coming back to power are considerably higher than their own and thus decided against strengthening any party that eyes the same potential vote base as the Congress?
Certainly, there is mixed messaging in the resistance with which the Congress has approached the possibility of an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the slow pace with which it has closed other partnerships, including in Bihar and Jharkhand. Either that or the party believes it can cross the all-important psychological threshold of 100 seats on its own, by gathering bits and bobs from states other than Uttar Pradesh, perhaps Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Punjab.
Either way, there is a distinct exasperation within the non-BJP, non-Congress parties, whose leaders, in private at least, are convinced that the Congress has already shifted the goal post of 2019. Some have proffered rhetorical conspiracy theories, like Arvind Kejriwal, who went so far as to say that the Congress and the BJP have struck a secret deal. And while there is obviously no merit to that allegation, it is difficult to explain why the Congress would not want to consider an alliance with the AAP across 17 seats (10 in Haryana and seven in Delhi).
A section of the Congress leadership has been trying to convince Rahul Gandhi to connect with Kejriwal since 2018 when polls were held for the post of deputy chairman of the Rajya Sabha. The Congress president refused then and is said to be as averse now. At a recent meeting at the residence of Sharad Pawar, the two leaders apparently came face to face. It is said that when Kejriwal broached the topic of an alliance, Gandhi vigorously waved his arms in the air to indicate that it was out of the question. When other leaders present pushed him both on joining hands with the AAP — and how the Congress strategy in UP would end up splitting the anti-Modi vote — he reportedly retorted: “Do you expect me to shut down my party?”
This is the dilemma before the Congress. It appears to be hell-bent on revival instead of resuscitation. When the fight is existential, shouldn’t the party opt for pragmatism over pride? Congress supporters point to how Kejriwal’s anti-corruption movement rode to prominence with the support of RSS workers. And that he even called for the Bharat Ratna to be taken back from Rajiv Gandhi, something even the BJP has never done. But, in the larger picture, politics is the art of the possible and when you are gasping for breath, should it matter who hands you the oxygen mask ?
Congress supporters argue that Kejriwal in this instance needs them more to retain presence in Parliament. Or point to the unreasonableness of Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati in conceding only two seats to it in UP. These may have been valid arguments for another time. But, if (and this is the if that Opposition politicians are asking the Congress to confront) the goal is primarily to beat the BJP, then all these arguments are infructuous. If the goal, however, is to do a trickle-up project to rebuild the Congress, then 2019 is a blip in that timeline and not the calendar date that matters.
There are other messaging choices by the Congress that are just as perplexing. For instance, the party’s clumsy ceding of the nationalism space entirely to the BJP. Sam Pitroda’s statements are the latest in a slew of comments that place Pulwama and Balakot front and centre of an election narrative that other political parties have been fervently trying to draw back to the state of the economy and jobs. Or even the timing of Priyanka Gandhi’s entry: Her personalised, granular, micro approach or slow ride down the Ganga makes for great copy and images. But it is not necessarily the best time, two months before the election as an alternative to the high-decibel Modi blitzkrieg. Her formal launch in politics should have perhaps been a year before to allow her more space or perhaps right after the results of 2019 — with a clearer mandate and role. Right now, she appears to be testing the waters, and there may not be enough time for that.
Fundamentally, the Congress must decide: What is its first priority in 2019? Beating Modi in 2019 — or a five year plan to fight him in 2024 ?
Barkha Dutt
